Saturday, December 28, 2019

Oklahoma Sooner versus Louisiana State Tigers

The Sooners overcame a costly loss at Kansas State and caught more than a couple of lucky breaks to earn their way back into the College Football Playoff. Their reward is a four seed and a matchup with LSU and Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow. It's the College Football Playoff at the Peach Bowl.

Nobody believes the Sooners have a shot against what might be the most lethal offense in SEC history. The Sooners are the biggest underdog in CFP history, breaking a record they set last year against Alabama.

The Sooners have also done themselves no favors as country music legend and defensive stalwart Ronnie Perkins got himself suspended along with Rhamondre Stevenson and freshman WR Trejan Bridges. Rumor is they got caught snorting booger sugar which is much less pedestrian than stealing coats. They've really outdone themselves this time.

Also, starting safety Delarrin Turner-Yell broke his damn collar bone so he's out. So, to recap, the Sooners are down a starting DB and their best pass rusher against Joe Burrow who looks pretty unstoppable.

Should they even play the game?

OFFENSE

The 21st century style triple option the Sooners have adopted this season has been brutally effective as a ball control, time consuming steamroller. It is the best friend of the Sooner D and it could potentially frustrate LSU on both sides of the ball.

But speaking of frustrating, the story all season has been turnovers. It's all well and good to have long, extended drives but if they end with turnovers what's the fucking point? It's almost a lock the Sooners will give the ball up once but you never know.

If I may beat a dead horse, the offense starts and ends with Jalen Hurts but Kennedy Brooks picks up yards in chunks and Stevenson was a luxury as a third option. TJ Pledger and/or Jeremiah Hall will probably pick up some of Stevenson's reps but I've got a feeling Lincoln Riley has something up his sleeve to unleash Brayden Willis.

Anyone who's watched a game with me this year is probably rolling their eyes because every time Willis is on the field I comment on it and spin a yarn about how he's built and used like a TE but listed as a FB. But he's a solid player who makes for a really good possession receiver.

At the end of the day, though, we know the drill. In your biggest games you get the ball in the hands of your best players. Those players are, in order, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts and Kennedy Brooks. If CeeDee and Kennedy have more touches combined than Jalen then the universe is in good alignment. If things start getting Jalen heavy it's probably not going well.

I'm picking CeeDee for my OPOG. Best player, biggest game.

DEFENSE

Joe Burrow is a freak. To me, he looks like a bigger, faster Baker Mayfield. He absolutely deserved the Heisman. However, can we briefly talk about how the SEC as a whole may be a smidge overrated? I mean, half the league can't fall out of the top 25 (nee top 15) or the ESPN satellites would fall back to earth. Is it possible that maybe, just maybe the Sooner D could offer a different look that no one else in the SEC is offering?

And if that's possible and if the Sooners could have some success against the vaunted LSU offense, could the Tigers maybe start pushing just a bit? Anything could happen. I just can't help but think that nobody benefits more than the Sooner D from all the hype about how awesome this LSU offense is.

That said, how do the Sooners do it? They have to keep Burrow bottled up a la the way they played Baylor. They need to somehow make Burrow get rid of the ball before he wants to or otherwise get him off his rhythm.

Kenneth Michael Murray has to keep Burrow bottled up. Neville Gallimore and Bookie can keep him on his toes. But someone else is going to need to step up big time. Parnell Motley perchance?

For my DPOG I'm going Kenneth Michael Murray. He's the heart and soul of this unit.

THE SCORE

Lost in all the LSU hype is that OU's offense is still OU's offense. They are capable of going score for score with anyone in the country. And for years, Sooner fans have been asking for just a decent defense. Now they are not only decent but one that, at times, is even better. They are peaking at the right time.

So don't believe the hype. The Sooners belong. Both teams have everything to prove but OU has nothing to lose and that makes them very dangerous. They are playing with house money. If LSU puckers up just a bit and the Sooners play their most complete game, I think the Sooners absolutely can do this.

And they will.

Sooners 34 Tigers 31

Boomer to the motherfuckin Sooner

LSU - College Football Playoff Semifinal

Once again, the Sooners eeked out a spot in the playoffs. And this year, every media member and all but the most delusional of fans has OU as the one thing that is not like the others in the final four of football. What that "thing" happens to be is an elite football team. Yes, the Sooners are a solid team, but most anyone would agree that there are probably a couple of teams that didn't even get in that are better top to bottom. That's the luxury of playing outside of the most competitive conference, even if it sets up a yearly punishing that just leads to a chorus of "I-told-you-sos" from the southeastern quadrant of the lower 48.

OU is once again a joke on defense. The secondary is laughably bad, lacking even one decent cover corner. The difference in this team and the past two years--is that the offense--while excellent, no longer feels as though nothing can stop it--other than itself. LSU employs an outstanding defense, with multiple DBs slated to be drafted in the first round, and with only one OU receiver in the caliber to truly test them, this feels like an advantage for LSU. Another notable difference from the past two years is that this is the first time they are facing a truly dynamic passing attack, with no less than the Heisman winning QB leading it. Can you feel my optimism?

Offense

If OU is to even make this remotely competitive, I think they have to shift gears. I'm looking at the second half of the first Baylor matchup as a template. Announcers there mistakenly gave the OU defense a lot of credit for shutting down the Bears. In reality, a missing CeeDee Lamb effectively forced the Sooners to simply grind out drives, simultaneously burning clock and more importantly keeping their atrocious defense of the field. Hurts can pass, but realistically he is a giant RB. I think Kennedy Brooks is the guy today, I think Hurts gets his, but I think CeeDee will be nullified and if this is to be at all interesting for the Sooners, Brooks will have to grind it out.

Defense

My skin versus a tanning bed may be the only bigger mismatch that comes to mind when comparing our D to their O. LSU is multifaceted, and have not only the Heisman-winning QB, but an elite set of WR's and line. It's questionable whether their RB will start due to hamstring injury, but will this really matter? OU has not been able to stop the pass all season, and is doing an astounding job of being bad in almost all phases of pass defense, copious PI calls to extend drives, an unbelievable amount of completely blown coverages, and loads of missed tackles that turn dump-offs into big gains or scores. Couple that with the suspension of country music legend Ronnie Perkins (one of the 3 respectable defenders the Sooners employ) and things look grim. I'm going with Canadian Bacon today; he's got to make an impact in the pass rush as well contain burrow. Basically, the pass rush needs to force bad throws that lead to turnover, and create sacks to end drives; help me Neville Gallimore, you're our only hope.

Score

Perhaps the only thing OU really has going for it is the "nobody gave us a chance" theory. They can play loose, take chances, and come out with absolutely no pressure on them. If they somehow can get an early lead; grab a little momentum; and take the LSU faithful out of it early, maybe the Tigers tighten up a bit force some things and we can make this interesting. A long shot? Um, of the most ridiculous proportions. But, I will keep the faith and say OU somehow rekindles some of that long lost Sooner Magic of the 80s, OU pulls it off 24-21.

Boomer to the Motherfuckin' Sooner

Saturday, December 7, 2019

Big 12 Championship

Everything went just right last night as Oregon did the big 12 a favor and knocked off Utah in the PAC 12 title game. I’ve been down on OU and perhaps a bit more than I should have been lately, but my biggest complaint is that they don’t take care of business when they control their own fate.  And while they definitely need help from LSU today, they have everything in front of them if they can beat Baylor a second time, if they lose, none of it will matter.

The first Baylor tilt was insane, and OU needed an historic comeback to pull out a win in Waco. While the home crowd and the stakes meant Baylor gave their best shot, OU certainly helped things along with turnovers. The scale tilted in the complete opposite direction in the second half an OU cobbled together a win. But, in spite of the stat-sheet tale, let's not oversell the defense their. Baylor got nothing going simply for lack of ever having the ball. It's really the Sooners best strategy, keep the defense off the field all together. And in the interest of credit where do, OU pretty much did a 180 from their fast-break offense and turned into a grind it out running attach to do so. I think it's a sound strategy.

Offense

Much was made about the absence of CeeDee Lamb in the first game, much more than I thought necessary prior to kickoff. However, I was more wrong than I could have imagined, his absence was glaring. Hurts struggled to find receivers and basically turned into a hike, cursory look downfield, and scramble guy for the second half. CeeDee is back today, and while the offense goes through Hurts and the run game, I like CeeDee to punish Baylor in his second chance to get on the field against them. Lamb has a big one today.

Defense

I watched last week's game in sporadic fashion, but appeared the defense looked a little bit better, albeit against a somewhat depleted OSU squad. Make no mistake, the defense is still a soggy diaper, but hopefully they can do enough against a Baylor team that, save for turnovers, did pretty much what they wanted last time out. I'm basically a two-trick pony here and I'm not changing now, this week it's Canadian Bacon playing big in the middle. I'm even predicting a sack.

Score

Win, TCB, cross t's dot i's etc. etc., OU needs to go out play their best game of the year and win. Forget about style points, just get the W. Baylor didn't forget about the first meeting, they will be ready to redeem themselves after an epic collapse and prove they aren't pretenders. OU is feeling like the first matchup should've never been as close as it was. It will all shake out this morning. OU does enough, and starts watching the SEC championship with more than a little interest. Sooners take it 38-32.

Boomer to the Motherfuckin Sooner

Friday, December 6, 2019

Big 12 Championship

The Sooners put together arguably their most complete game of the 2019 campaign with a yeaoman-like performance in Stillwater last week. Jalen Hurts did not turn the ball over, the Sooners utilized a punishing running game that didn't exclusively feature Hurts and the defense played very well. I may likely regret saying this but could the Sooners be peaking at just the right time?

The right time, for now, is the Big 12 Championship and a rematch with the Baylor Bears. To recap that first matchup the Sooners played maybe their worst defensive half in the first half before stepping up and playing their best half in the second. Jalen Hurts turned the ball over three times. CeeDee Lamb didn't play. The Sooners imposed their will in all phases of the game in the second half while overcoming a 25-point deficit. They shouldn't have been there in the first place and would be wise to avoid it in this second meeting.

OFFENSE

The Sooners never really had any issues against the Bears en route to a 31-10 halftime deficit. They (nee' Jalen) just shit down the pants legs upon entering the red zone. Two turnovers resulted in 14 quick points for the Bears. That sort of thing really changes the algebra.

Now, as ever, the Sooners need to value the football. I like to pick on Jalen because of his Alabama piss excellence pedigree but he's simply not the qb that Baker or Kyler are. He was first flummoxed then sacked by a three man front. He runs when he should hand off, stays in the pocket when there's nothing but grass in front of him and dances around instead of gettting rid of the ball. He's maddening and yet maddeningly efficient.

I like the idea of both Kennedy Brooks and Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield. I like this Brayden Willis, a brick shithouse FB, who looks and acts like O.J. Howard catching balls. Riley can keep it simple for Jalen and take some of the decision making out of his hands. Stevenson and Willis can both play like receivers and help get the ball out of Jalen's hands quickly. Jalen just needs to go for broke on deep balls and let CeeDee and Charlston Rambo make plays.

For my OPOG I'm going Kennedy Brooks. He glides and he's been getting the ball a bunch. He needs to keep getting fed.


DEFENSE

I've seen some pretty heady stats come out this week about this unit. They were last in the Big 12 last year in total defense and they are currently 1st. They are 3rd in defensive efficiency. The last five games they've given up 48, 41, 31, 24 and 16 points. That's trending in a positive direction.

The Sooners offense was really their best defense against the Bears in the first meeting. But when the Sooner D was on the field in the second half they shut down the QB run game that had absolutely gashed them in the first half. So they apparently have a pretty good blueprint to work off.

I'm riding the hot hand this week and going with hero-cum-goat-cum-hero Parnell Motley. No one makes more plays when the Sooners have to than him and played his best game last week. Keep it up my dude.

THE SCORE

OU dominates the Big 12 Championship. I think the Bears, though, have more fortitude than some past opponents. This one is closer than many of the past but the Sooners prevail behind offensive balance and a defense that is peaking (or their version of it).

Sooners 49 Bears 28

BONUS PREDICTION

The Sooners make their case for the playoff and get hosed in favor of Utah. College football is still a sport decided by voters and these voters have OU fatigue.

Boomer to the motherfuckin Sooner