Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Oklahoma Sooners versus Oregon Ducks in the Valero Alamo Bowl

Life comes at you pretty fast, Sooner fans. The last month has been bananas. The Sooners lost to the Cowboys in Bedlam. Then Lincoln Riley bolts for USC. Doom and gloom sets in for a week before the triumphant return of Brent Venables buoys the hopes and dreams of Sooner Nation yet again. We had a season with championship aspirations and a Heisman Trophy quarterback and now we've got the Alamo Bowl, Spencer Rattler gone and Bob Stoops coaching the game.

There have been decommitments,  transfers and opt outs. Rattler, predictably, is gone. Austin Stogner went with him to Shane Beamer and South Carolina and Jaden Haselwood left for Arkansas. Perrion Winfrey, Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto are notables on defense who have opted out of the bowl game. These are major blows but much has been salvaged. Theo Wease (he of 0 catches all season) entered the portal but decided to stay, there have been a couple of transfers from the portal on their way in and the recruiting class is still top 10 for whatever that is worth.

Most importantly, Caleb Williams thus far has stayed. I think if he was leaving he would have done so already. But besides going to USC to follow Riley, where else could his situation be improved? Kennedy Brooks, Marvin Mims and Mario Williams have also decided, thus far, to stay. I wouldn't be surprised if Brooks opts for the NFL after the bowl game, however. 

I think they've been convinced to stay by Jeff Lebby who, statistically, has had a top five offense nationally the last three years at Ole Miss. The Sooners offense, by contrast, has been around 40 the last three years. I didn't realize this until I obsessively started following the coaching search.

All of which has me looking at the program in a new light. First, it's possible OU just got better all around. Anybody would say Brent Venables is an upgrade from Alex Grinch and statistically the offense has room for improvement. Second, it's possible that the legend of Lincoln Riley is just that. It will be very interesting to watch the development of his former players compared to his new guys over the next three years. Third, there now seems to be a very intense focus on player development and for OU to become known as a conduit to the next level. 

Oregon, if you can believe it, finds themselves in a similar if not worse situation. They also lost their coach and due to transfers and opt-outs are missing something like thirty players for the bowl game. With expectations now through the floor and nothing on the line, this one looks like it could be a pretty fun one to watch.

OFFENSE

It's Cale Gundy calling plays and one wonders if this means everything will be simplified or if new OC Jeff Lebby has been doing any work trying to install some of his offense to try out. My guess is there will be a let 'er rip approach but with a heavy lean on the run game. By that I mean I don't think the run will be abandoned the way Lincoln sometimes would and I also expect there won't be a lot of playing for field position or punting. I bet the Sooners go for it on 4th at least three times, not including some late game obvious 4 down situation. 

I'll go with CW for my OPOG because I think he'll have quite a few designed runs for him. I wouldn't call it a coronation per se, but I think this will be a showcase game for him. 

DEFENSE

This is where things get real interesting. Nearly the entire D-line has opted out. You have a handful of coaches sticking around before heading off to new jobs and you've got Bob Stoops and Venables around but, in the case of Venables, not technically part of the staff. 

I think this lends itself to a hair on fire approach where a lot of new faces get a lot of snaps to audition for parts in next years D. Things could get extremely ugly but with Oregon being so shorthanded maybe the Sooners catch some breaks. 

Defense seems harder to adjust in a short time frame and I'll be interested to see if there's as much pre-snap movement or if new concepts are being installed. I will be shocked, in a bad way, if the D does not come out highly motivated and flying to the football. Those that are here and intend to be on campus next year should be very keen to be on Venables radar as soon as possible.

For my DPOG I'll go with Danny Stutsman who impressed me all season and who absolutely should be on the short list for players to make a big jump next year in the new Venables defense.

THE SCORE

Surprise, surprise I think the Sooners win this one going away. The line is Sooners -7 and I'd be jumping all over that if I were a betting man. There is no reason to think the Sooners offense can't be potent, especially with one of the best defensive players in the country opting out for Oregon. 

And don't forget this game is a meaningless exhibition, which is when Oklahoma teams really shine. All this points to good times and one last ice bucket bath for Coach Bobby.

Sooners 42, Ducks 17

Boomer to the motherfuckin Sooner