Saturday, December 29, 2018

Alabama

The College Football Playoff commences today with our beloved Sooners facing the mighty Crimson Tide from Alabama in the second of two huge games. This marks the third time OU has been to the College Playoffs and the second consecutive year in it. Alas, the next win in this setting for the Sooners will be their first. Going into this game last year, I felt OU had a decent chance of winning. Sure Georgia was tough, but OU had proved their mettle, in spite of a bad defense, with a road win at Ohio State. This year the defense is worse--much worse--and with no real banner wins, my confidence level is near zero.

If you own a TV, or have a reasonable idea of what a TV is, you've probably heard that Alabama is good. As usual, they have a defense that is loaded with NFL prospects and first-round draft picks. They are huge and athletic and fast and mean and can actually fly in short, 15- 20-yard increments. One of their linebackers is in actuality a minotaur that lives on the blood unborn sheep and can bench press 3500 pounds. So yeah, they're imposing. What stands out however, is not the mythical half man/half bull they signed out of rural New Mexico, it's that they have an offense that can score. Not only can they score, they're actually really good at it. So good in fact that their starters hardly played at all in the 4th quarter this season. I present the Sooners first 13 games as exhibits A-M in my case for OU as worst defense of all time. This is not a good matchup.

Optimism? Fear not, I'm sure Mitch will be your divining rod for optimism in the Sahara of this game. I, however, will do my best. Saban has historically had trouble defending an offense like OU. Alabama generally does well against NFL-style offenses found in the SEC. Improvising quarterbacks, and speed based offenses that spread the field and attack are a Big 12 novelty, and not easy to defend. OU is very good at doing these things, and with a stout offensive line, they might actually be able to move the ball and put up some points, minotaur be damned. The other side of the ball? Well, I don't want to ruin the ending for you.

Offense

Last year, you may remember, OU came out very strong and looked all but unstoppable against a good Georgia defense. Then Lincoln Riley showed his youth and inexperience by getting cute and moving away from the bludgeoning run game that had been so effective in the first half. It's not likely that scenario plays out again, but in the event something is working well, let's hope the Sooners stick with it. I think Kyler Murray winning the Heisman was cool, but what Alabama didn't need was material for their bulletin board. With that in mind, I think the Tide is going to be frothing over the chance to crush Kyler. I think Trey Sermon is the Sooners answer. Make no mistake, Murray has to be great, maybe transcendent for OU to have a chance, but I think OU rides Sermon behind a good offensive line.

Defense

Alabama has, for once, a good offense, maybe even a great offense. The Sooners defense is unbelievably bad. I think I'll be surprised if Alabama punts before half time. Oh how I hope I'm wrong. I think the Sooners best chance is to make Alabama sustain drives, and hope for a few lucky bounces with turnovers, dropped passes etc. The fact that this is what I'm hoping will happen is really not good. I will pick Curtis Bolton today simply for the fact that he is often the most fired-up guy. Here's hoping he lays a few big hits and disrupts their offense a bit.

Score

One thing I like about the build-up to this game is that nobody, and I mean nobody, thinks the Sooners have a realistic chance of winning. That's a potent motivator, and I hope Riley and his staff are reminding the team of that often. OU will need to play not only its best game of the season, it will have to be damn near perfect in all phases (no gimme field goals allowed on special teams right before half time, please). I'm fired up to watch this game, and I'm hoping OU comes out and stuns everyone from the get-go, but I just can't do it, Alabama wins it 49-38.

Boomer to the Motherfuckin' Sooner

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